Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
